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发表于 2011-6-22 11:18
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要点： GivsJ &{\n
212100Z位于约12.9N 129.8E处，热带低压（TD）07W ，位于帕劳西北方约320海里处，在过去的6小时内以11kts的速度向西北方向移动。最新的动态红外云图显示，深厚对流正在低层环流中心附近组织和构建，螺旋云带上虽然出现深厚对流，但不完整。对流正开始卷入系统的北侧和南侧。在系统的西南侧和东侧都能观察到强烈的流出，流向系统东部的热带对流层上部槽（TUTT）。211713Z AMSR-E图像显示，一系列不完整的云带正从北侧卷入LLCC中，中心对流深厚。211301ZASCAT扫描显示，季风槽内一狭长的低压区出现闭合的20-25kts环流圈，在LLCC北侧和南侧的区域风力达到25-30kts。系统目前正沿着位于其东北方的中太平洋高压西南侧边沿移动，预计在未来60小时内将保持西北方向移动。众多数值模型在此期间的预测结果保持高度一致；60小时后，数值出现明显分歧，NOGAPS预计系统将大幅向东转向，ECMWF预计将趋向台湾，GFS, UKMET 和JGSM则和本预测结果近似。本警报代替并取消之前发出的热带气旋形成警报（TCFA）。 q818Z0yW
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引用
REMARKS:212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 129.8E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWESTOF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIXHOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIONORGANIZING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDSOF DEEP, BUT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THENORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG OUTFLOW CAN BESEEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL UPPERTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 211713Z AMSR-EPASS SHOWS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THELLCC FROM THE NORTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION AT THE CENTER. A 211301ZASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED DEPRESSION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGHWITH A CLOSED 20-25KT CIRCULATION AND REGIONS OF 25-30KTS OF WIND TOTHE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKINGALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC HIGH LOCATED TOTHE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THENORTHWEST FOR 60 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOODAGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. NEAR TAU 60, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCESTARTS TO FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS RECURVING SHARPLY TO THEEAST, ECMWF CONTINUING INTO TAIWAN, AND GFS, UKMET AND JGSMFOLLOWING A TRACK SIMILAR TO THIS FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDESAND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210251Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONEFORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500ZAND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//NNNN
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发表于 2011-6-22 09:52
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往日本去了
数值有点偏东，娘的，这水都下给日本了。
